Short-Run Dynamics

Short-run dynamics (or noise) are characterized by irregular cycles and discontinuous trends, but the long-term trends are identifiable. A successful organization faces an unknowable specific future because things can and do happen that were not predicted and that affect what is achieved and how it is achieved. Agents within an organization can’t control, through their actions, analytic processes and controls, the long-term future. They can only act in relation to the short term. Long-term development is a spontaneous, self-organizing process that may give rise to new strategic directions. Spontaneous self-organization is the product of political interaction combined with learning in groups, and managers have to pursue reasoning through the use of analogy. It is through this process that managers create and come to know the environments and long-term futures of their organizations.

Some complexity theorists would argue that the managed change perspective that underpins this book is fundamentally flawed. They would do so because it focuses on management of complexity and renewal through environmental analysis and programmatic initiatives that advance internal and external alignment, and through them the accomplishment of the goals of the change. Those who adopt a complexity perspective would view the change leader’s job as one of creating conditions and ground rules that will allow for innovation and efficiency to emerge through the encouragement of the interactions and relationships of others.

Advocates believe this approach can unleash energy and enthusiasm and allow naturally occurring patterns to emerge that would otherwise remain unseen (i.e., they self-organize into alignment). Vision and strategy are still valued by complexity theorists because they can supply participants with a sense of the hoped-for direction. However, they are not viewed as useful when they attempt to specify the ultimate goal.